Election Uncertainty

Every presidential election year, there seems to be an interesting phenomenon in the residential remodeling business.  While I've only observed it three times in my career, I'm told by long-timers that it seems to happen every four years for as long as they can remember.  The severity of the phenomenon is highly correlated to the degree of certainty the populace has that either a D or an R will likely be elected into the white house.  Of course the phenomenon I’m referring to is that, most projects, seem to stall or be placed on the back burner until the uncertainty of the election is decided in early November. 

I’ve wondered if this is a conscious decision or some deeper psychological response to uncertainty.  While I’m not aware of any empirical evidence or studies that have been conducted on this particular phenomenon, it feels real enough to me.   My wife, who holds a PhD in psychology, is quick to remind me that “correlation does not equal causation.”  Still, though…I wonder. 

It has been fascinating to watch over the last several weeks how the uncertainty of the election has coupled with the uncertainty of the economy to produce very high levels of anxiety and remodeling lethargy.  While I tend towards optimism, I certainly see why there is hesitancy in the market place.  It is because of my optimism, though, that I think savvy home owners can leverage this phenomenon to their advantage. 

There is, generally, a greater availability of skilled labor and design talent that is not committed to a huge backlog of work.  These people can quickly come along side a home owner and help them realize their vision and accomplish their dreams.  The bottom has not fallen out of the market, nor are there incredible deals like so many Obama bumper stickers in Seattle.  However, a good negotiator can likely attain for themselves great values for the work they would like done with just a little extra effort and negotiation.  Think of it as trying to find a McCain bumper sticker. 

From the people I’ve been talking to, there is still money to be found through mortgage lenders for construction loans and home improvement loans (particularly the more modest budget projects).  This all means that it may be a great time to pit uncertainty against the potential savings for high quality work that can be found in the market.  Like my mother always told me…”always explore your options, kiddo, you might just find what you’re looking for!”

Eric Drivdahl

Posted:
October 8th, 2008

From Project:
Waterhouse Remodel